Way too convoluted and there's
waaaaaay too much bad blood between the UA and Wagner for both sides to settle into an uneasy "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" status quo and/or team-up. Prigozhin's a hard-bitten nationalist; he's not going to do an about-face and just leave Ukraine (including Donbas, Crimea and Luhansk) after all the losses he's incurred, either - he's susceptible to the so-called "sunk cost fallacy",
even though one of his latest videos does suggest he's prepping up for a retreat out of Ukraine by directly gainsaying the Kremlin's claim that Ukraine was becoming a threat to Russian national security by turning itself into a NATO stooge. Whether he's already laying the groundwork for future blame games or simply looking to publicly embarrass Shoigu by torpedoing the conflict's official cover story, is uncertain. In the end, most of what he says does not necessarily reflect his true thoughts; it's all mere posturing for the camera.
But, to sum it up...either:
1. The artillery strike was Shoigu's attempt to bring Wagner to heel by taking out its commanders by dint of an "unfortunate" blue-on-blue incident, incidentally paving the way for a forced integration into the armed forces.
2. The notoriously dysfunctional RU artillery forces actually
did commit accidental friendly fire -- by no means the first time they've done so.
3. Prigozhin just set up a false flag op to justify what is shaping up (or at least what the FSB is now openly calling as such) as a coup d'état. It's entirely possible that the aftermath video that's currently making the rounds is completely staged.
That said: 25,000 mercs notoriously suffering from a chronic shortage of ammo versus the rest of the Russian forces plus the intelligence community and the Rosgvardia, both of which lie firmly under Putin's thumb? Somebody please take note of the moonshine Prigozhin's been drinking - it needs to be outlawed ASAP.
Whatever the
real case between the RU army and Wagner may be...
Such strange times we live in, truly... :-/
EDIT: well, what a sh**show. This is starting to look like your classic "false flag followed by coup" pattern -- honestly, that forest footage looks rather dubious.